Planning Wilderness Expeditions in an Era of Extremes

Flash floods. Drought. Heat domes. Triple-digit heat indexes. Fire clouds. Those aren’t predictions from some distant climate scenario. They’re terms pulled from today’s headlines.

Some of these news stories hit close to home for anyone who ventures into wilderness. In late August of this year, a catastrophic flash flood triggered by a glacial collapse swept through a mountainous region of Nepal that is popular with trekkers, killing hundreds and leaving thousands missing. 

Days later, a violent thunderstorm sent floodwaters roaring through Bright Angel Canyon in Grand Canyon National Park, killing two hikers, destroying footbridges, and forcing the evacuation of dozens more.

Nature has always challenged, and sometimes punished, those daring enough to explore its more remote and untamed regions. But recent and rapidly changing atmospheric conditions have raised the stakes, even for those exploring more hospitable environments, both with and without certified guides. Whether you’re organizing a multiday expedition or heading out for an afternoon hike, preparation takes on more importance. It means thinking beyond what conditions are “normally like,” instead considering what could happen if conditions change in potentially dangerous ways.

In the human-powered outdoor recreation and education side of the outdoor industry, the playing field is constantly shifting, making it necessary for us to continuously evaluate nature and reevaluate when, where, and how we venture out into the backcountry.

Having recently returned home from a month of adventures in the wilds of New England and preparing to guide trips in the Southeast, I have experienced firsthand just how flexible and creative we adventurers need to be. And that’s whether we’re planning for single-day outings in nearby locations or longer trips in more remote and unfamiliar areas.

I spend an enormous amount of time guiding trips in remote locations and have developed a deep catalog of places to go, as well as places to avoid during certain times of the year. But lately, even that experience has become less reliable. I’m no longer planning around locations and calendar seasons alone. I am also having to account for potential wildfires, floods, droughts, extreme heat, and tornadoes turning up at unexpected times in unexpected places.

That started me thinking about people who may venture out into the backcountry only once or twice a year and can’t draw from years of experience. How can they prepare for hazards that were not an issue in past visits to a particular area?

With that in mind, here are four tips to help you plan a safer, more enjoyable, and more rewarding outdoor adventure when everything you knew about a destination’s environmental challenges may no longer apply.

Tip 1: Plan and prepare

“Plan head & prepare” is the first principle of Leave No Trace (LNT), and it used to mean pick a spot, coordinate with my traveling companions, mark the dates on my calendar, and go. Not anymore! In today’s climate, I carefully monitor conditions and local beta (the latest firsthand information about trails, water, weather, and other hazards) long before I put feet on the ground. Are conditions in the area ripe for a forest fire? Will there be water in the rivers and lakes? Is there potential for heavy weather, tropical storms, or flash flooding?

Last year, the local rivers I frequent hit an all-time-high water level. That meant they were hazardous for paddling, as well as damaging to the rivers and the trails that surround them. Today, water levels in the lakes are strikingly low, and the rivers look more like cobbled pathways than waterways. An excursion down river or a canoe camping trip isn’t happening any time soon. Historical data has been reliable, but today, you need to do more. Your best bet is to personally reach out to outfitters and friends and get the local beta to determine whether your trip plans are viable.

Pro Tip: Consider travel insurance. If your plans include a flight, hotel, and car rental, travel insurance can make it less costly to cancel if nature throws you a curve ball. Travel insurance runs roughly 4 to 8 percent of your trip costs, flights, and hotel and sometimes includes some medical coverage. For $1,000 dollars of coverage, you pay around $40.

I recently spoke with someone who had to change travel plans due to wildfires at their destination. Without trip insurance, that person is now trying to figure out how much of the money already spent can be recovered.

Tip 2: Evaluate / reevaluate when and where to travel

Look closely at the areas you want to explore and start digging into the conditions you might encounter, and don’t stop those inquiries until the day you head out. Don’t assume that what was true last season, last month, or even last week is still the case. Wildfires, drought, and other hazards can quickly change when and where it makes sense to travel.

Monitor Active Fires and Air Quality

Wildfires can affect your trip even when the flames are miles from where you plan to travel. Smoke can create unhealthy air, while fire activity can close roads and trails and make an entire area unsafe. Before heading out, take a few minutes to check the latest conditions. And be sure to pack accordingly:

• Use tracking tools like InciWeb or Watch Duty to access real-time wildfire updates and containment data before you leave.
• Look at air quality forecasts on AirNow to ensure your destination is safe from heavy smoke.
• Check local ranger stations or land manager websites for the latest trail and road closures just before arrival.
• Pack N95 masks.

Consider Local Flood Risks

With little warning, flooding can turn a familiar trail, campsite, or river crossing into a dangerous place. Even when skies are clear, heavy rain located miles away can put you at risk. Before heading out, understand where flooding could occur, watch for changing conditions, and have a plan for getting to safety if water begins to rise.

Monitor Weather Closely

• Check daily forecasts and severe-weather apps for upstream rainfall warnings before and during your trip.
• Identify local escape routes and higher ground options before setting up camp.

Pack Waterproof Gear

• Store sleeping bags and spare clothing inside heavy-duty dry bags or plastic trash can liners.
• Use a ground tarp cut slightly smaller than your tent floor, so it does not trap and pool water under the tent.

Choose High Ground

• Pitch your tent at least 100 yards away from rivers, streams, and low-lying valleys.
• Avoid natural drainage channels, dry riverbeds, and depressions where water pools.

Know When to Flee

• Move to high ground immediately if you notice even a slight or sudden rise in local water levels.
• Never attempt to walk, swim, or drive through fast-moving flood waters.

Preparing for Drought and Dry Conditions

Prolonged dry weather can change much more than the scenery. Water sources may disappear, fire danger can soar, and normally routine camping activities such as choosing a campsite to preparing a meal, may require extra care. Before heading out, explore how dry conditions could affect your trip and adjust your plans and supplies accordingly.

Check Fire Restrictions

• Obey local bans: Always check official local or park fire bans before leaving.
• Bring a stove: Pack a portable propane or gas camp stove instead of relying on a campfire.
• Clear the area: If fires are allowed, clear all twigs, dry leaves, and dirt from around the fire ring.

Pack Extra Water

• Haul extra supply: Bring more water than you think you’ll need for drinking and cleaning.
• Confirm sources: Do not trust natural streams or pumps to be running or safe during a drought.
• Use multiple jugs: Split water into smaller containers so a single leak does not exhaust your supply.

Choose Safe Campsites

• Watch the brush: Avoid setting up your tent over dry grass, pine needles, or thick brush that can catch fire easily.
• Park carefully: Do not park hot vehicle exhaust pipes over tall, dry grass.
• Clear your space: Clear any flammable debris from the ground around your tent.

Adjust Meals and Hygiene

• Plan no-cook food: Bring foods that need zero water or cooking.
• Save wash water: Use wet wipes for cleaning, or wash dishes using a tiny trickle of water in a small tub.
• Store trash tight: Keep all trash sealed up so wildlife does not look for scarce water or food in your camp.

Tip 3: Learn to read conditions during your trip

I hear story after story of people who bailed on a trip because of a threatening forecast, only to discover later that the bad weather lasted only an hour or a day or never even materialized. Others get caught by conditions they didn’t see coming. Digital forecasts and weather apps are valuable tools, but they aren’t infallible. And in some remote areas, you may not be able to access them at all.

Weather awareness requires more than just trusting seasonal patterns or checking an app before you leave. Learn to read the sky and your surroundings for signs of changing conditions, and pay attention to safety rules, warnings, and alerts when they’re available. The more tools you have in your forecasting toolbox, the better equipped you’ll be to decide when to stick to your plan, change it, or cancel it altogether.

Reading the Sky and Environment

Long before you could tap your phone for a local weather forecast, people relied on the sky and their surroundings for clues about what the weather might do next. Look around. Those clues are still there. Learning to recognize a few common warning signs can give you valuable time to prepare, change course, or seek shelter:

• Cumulonimbus clouds: Look for dark, tall anvil-shaped clouds that signal heavy rain, lightning, or tornadoes.
• Red sky in the east or west: Recall the adage: “Red sky at night, a sailor’s delight. Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning.” In the middle latitudes, weather systems generally move from west to east. A deeply red sky indicates a high-pressure system, which traps dust, salt, and dry aerosols close to the ground, causing the sky to turn red. When that high-pressure system is west of you, it’s moving toward you, bringing fair weather. When it’s east of you, a low-pressure system is likely headed your way, potentially bringing wetter, stormy weather.
• Haloes: Notice rings around the sun or moon, which show upper-atmosphere moisture and incoming precipitation. Recall the adage: “A ring around the sun or moon means rain or snow is coming soon.”
• Sudden shifts: Pay attention to rapid temperature drops, abrupt changes in wind speed or direction, and quickly darkening skies, all of which can signal an approaching front or thunderstorm. Heavy plant smells, brought on by rising humidity, can also be a sign of unstable atmospheric conditions.

Using Safety Rules and Alerts

Reading the sky can tell you a lot, but you shouldn’t rely on your own observations alone. Established weather-safety rules and official alerts can help you recognize when conditions are becoming dangerous and, more importantly, when it’s time to act:

• Thunder: Current U.S. lightning-safety guidance generally emphasizes, “When thunder roars, go indoors.” (This guidance is stricter than the 30/30 rule: If you hear thunder within 30 seconds of seeing a lightning flash, the lightning is closer than six miles, so seek safe shelter immediately.)
• Lightning safety: If you hear thunder, seek a substantial building or hard-topped vehicle immediately. If no safe shelter is available, remember that a tent will not protect you from lightning. Get off exposed or elevated terrain; stay away from water, isolated trees, and conductive objects; and spread out if you’re traveling with a group, so a single lightning strike is less likely to injure everyone in your party. In a forest, lower terrain among shorter trees is preferable to being near an isolated tall tree, but also remain aware of any flooding risks that may be elevated by moving to lower terrain.
• Watch versus warning: A watch means severe weather is possible (stay alert); a warning means severe weather is happening or imminent (take action).
• Electronic backup: Keep emergency alerts enabled on your phone and carry a portable, battery-powered weather radio as a backup for when cell service is unavailable.

Tip 4: Be flexible and beware of “summit fever”

“Summit fever” is a term used to describe a dangerous mental state in which a person becomes so obsessed with reaching the top of a mountain that the climber ignores clear warning signs like bad weather, severe tiredness, or other dangers. In other words, the climber has a severe case of tunnel vision that prevents rational thinking.

To avoid becoming a victim of summit fever, commit to flexibility as you plan your trip and maintain that commitment over the entire trip. Before you leave, be open to changing your destination, route, schedule, or even the dates of your trip if conditions warrant it. Once you’re underway, keep reassessing the weather, trail conditions, water availability, fire activity, and other potential hazards.

Turning around, taking a different route, or calling a trip short isn’t a failure. It’s just good decision-making. The goal isn’t to stick to the plan at all costs; it’s to adapt the plan as conditions change so everyone gets home safely.

Pro Tip: Have one or two contingency plans. The best way to remain flexible is to go back to Tip 1 (plan and prepare) and develop one or more contingency plans. Choose alternate dates, an alternate destination, or a different activity, and pack accordingly. There’s no shame in modifying or completely changing your trip location or itinerary, and having a backup plan makes it much easier to do so. A solid contingency plan can make the difference between enjoying an awesome adventure and lying motionless in a recliner watching a screen and brushing away crumbs on your shirt.

Extreme conditions increase the risks inherent in any outdoor adventure, but the habits that help you prepare for them enable you to mitigate those risks. Researching your destination, watching the weather, reading the environment, and remaining flexible can help you identify where your expedition-planning skills are strong. They are also an indication of where you might need more practice, knowledge, or preparation.

The wilderness will always be unpredictable. You may have no control over extreme weather events, wildfires, or droughts, but you can control how well you prepare, how closely you pay attention, and how willing you are to change course when conditions change.

If you have questions about any of these tips, or are looking for local beta as you plan your next adventure, reach out to us at NCOAE. We’re always happy to help a fellow adventurer head into the backcountry better informed and better prepared.

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About the Author: Stephen Mullaney is the Director of School Partnerships and Staff Development at The National Center for Outdoor & Adventure Education (NCOAE).

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